Female Thyroid Cancer, Ages 15 -24, 1975 – 2008, Japan. all data available, Official Estimates

Source: http://ganjoho.jp/pro/statistics/en/table_download.html National estimates of cancer incidence based on cancer registries in Japan (1975-2008)
Reference to be cited: Center for Cancer Control and Information Services,
National Cancer Center, Japan

Deposition of gamma-emitting nuclides in Japan after the reactor-IV accident at Chernobyl

Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry
Volume 116, Issue 2 , pp 291-306
Cover Date 1987-12-01

M. Aoyama (1)
K. Hirose (1)
Y. Sugimura (1)

Author Affiliations

1. Geochemical Laboratory, Meteorological Research Institute, Nagamine 1-1, Yatabe, 305, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, (Japan)


The wet and dry deposition of gamma-emitting nuclides are presented for Tsukuba and eleven stations in Japan following the nuclear reactor accident at Chernobyl’. In Japan fallout from the reactor at Chernobyl’ was first detected on May 3, 1986, a week after the accident. Abruptly high radioactive deposition, which mainly consists of131I,132I,103Ru,137Cs and134Cs, was observed in early May. The cumulative amount of131I,103Ru and137Cs in May at Tsukuba were 5854±838 Bq·m−2, 364±54 Bq·m−2 and 130±26 Bq·m−2 (decay was corrected to April 26), respectively. The monthly137Cs deposition in May corresponds to 2.5% of the cumulative137Cs deposition during the period from 1960 through 1982. Most of the Chernobyl’ radioactivities, especially131I, are scavenged from the atmosphere by the wet removal process. cost of full paper $39.95. Unless you know someone with academic access.

Year of first increase in female thyroid cancer diagnosis in Japan after Chernobyl fallout arrival in Japan – 1986. Peak effect of Chernobyl fallout on Thyroid Cancer in defined female age range in Japan – 1992.

Latent period of Thyroid Cancer: http://www.rri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/NSRG/reports/kr79/kr79pdf/Malko2.pdf
Chernobyl Radiation-induced Thyroid Cancers in Belarus
Mikhail V. MALKO Joint Institute of Power and Nuclear Research, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus Krasin Str. 99, Minsk, Sosny, 220109, Republic
of Belarus: mvmalko@malkom.belpak.minsk.by QUOTE: ” absence of marked latency period is another feature of radiation-induced thyroid cancers caused in Belarus as a result of this accident. “

Dr Yamashita, 2011 – 2013 – claimed five years minimum before any effect, “based on Chernobyl”

Dr Yamashita, 2007: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17452969
Nat Clin Pract Endocrinol Metab. 2007 May;3(5):422-9.
Mechanisms of Disease: molecular genetics of childhood thyroid cancers.
Yamashita S, Saenko V.
Department of Molecular Medicine, Atomic Bomb Disease Institute, Nagasaki University, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Japan. shun@nagasaki-u.ac.jp
“There was a broad range of latency periods in children who developed thyroid cancer; some periods were less than 5 years.” Sprung Dr Yamashita.

US CDC at http://www.cdc.gov/wtc/pdfs/wtchpminlatcancer2013-05-01.pdf
Minimum latent period – 2.5 years.

Latency Period of Thyroid Neoplasia After Radiation Exposure


Journal List
Ann Surg
v.239(4); Apr 2004

Latency Period of Thyroid Neoplasia After Radiation Exposure
Shoichi Kikuchi, MD, PhD, Nancy D. Perrier, MD, Philip Ituarte, PhD, MPH, Allan E. Siperstein, MD, Quan-Yang Duh, MD, and Orlo H. Clark, MD

From the From Department of Surgery, UCSF Affiliated Hospitals, San Francisco, California.

Although some sporadic tumors unrelated to radiation may be included among our patients, the shortest latency period for both benign and malignant tumors was 1 year as occurred in 3 patients, whereas the longest time was 69 and 58 years, respectively

end quotes.

I conclude the information provided by Dr Yamashita regarding the latency of childhood and young adult thyroid cancer is 1. Incorrect 2. Differs from Dr Yamashita’s stated conclusions published in 2007.

Further, the impact of Chernobyl in regard to Thyroid cancer in Japan from 1986 on, peaking in 1992, is fairly clear. I submit that the impact of the Fukushima Diiachi Nuclear Disaster on disease rates in Japan will be massively larger than the effect of Chernobyl fallout.

This will also be true for countries other than Japan.

Please see earlier posts which cite papers which point out the lack of a National Cancer Registry in Japan prior to the 21st century.

See previous posts which cite papers which describe the peaks of disease in Japan in the 1980s and 1990s.

No accessible data for disease rates in Japan prior to the mid 1970s, the time of the first operation of nuclear industry in Japan.

No accessible data can be found which describes disease rates in Japan from the late 2000s to the present time.

The primary data collected and released describing disease within areas in Japan since 2011 was collected under the supervision of Dr Yamashita until the very recent past.

It is a tragedy of modern medical record keeping that the best Japan can do is provide official estimates of the cancer for the period. It is extremely tragic that the people of Japan and the people of the world cannot see the trend of disease prior to the establishment of nuclear industry in Japan. However, for female thyroid cancer, the start point in 1975 was low. The end point of the date range provided, 2008, was higher, in all cases except for some very young age ranges. Of the childhood data provided, the most responsive appears to be the 15-19 years age range.

It is important for ordinary people in Japan and elsewhere to know that the data, as such exists, may be downloaded and studied form the link given above, ie download the data from

http://ganjoho.jp/pro/statistics/en/table_download.html National estimates of cancer incidence based on cancer registries in Japan (1975-2008)