Feasible Anticipation of Thyroid Cancer Outcomes in Japan Post Fukushima

Morphologic Characteristics of Chernobyl-Related Childhood Papillary Thyroid Carcinomas Are Independent of Radiation Exposure but Vary with Iodine Intake
February 3, 2014


Thyroid. 2008 August; 18(8): 847–852.
doi: 10.1089/thy.2008.0039
PMCID: PMC2879486

E. Dillwyn Williams,corresponding author1 Alexander Abrosimov,2 Tatiana Bogdanova,3 Evgeny P. Demidchik,4 Masahiro Ito,5 Virginia LiVolsi,6 Evgeny Lushnikov,2 Juan Rosai,7 Mikola D. Tronko,3 Anatoly F. Tsyb,2 Sarah L. Vowler,8 and Geraldine A. Thomas9

This paper allows for the pediction that the characteristics of radiation induced thyroid cancer in Japan post the Fukushima Diiachi will be differ from some characteristics of the disease as observed to be suffered by children in the post Chernobyl cohort.

See https://nuclearhistory.wordpress.com/2014/02/03/morphologic-characteristics-of-chernobyl-related-childhood-papillary-thyroid-carcinomas-are-independent-of-radiation-exposure-but-vary-with-iodine-intake/

However there seems to me no reason not to expect a distortion in the usual F:M ratio of cases. As reported, post Chernobyl: ” There was a marked difference between the sex ratios of children with PTCs who were radiation exposed and those who were not exposed (F:M exposed vs. unexposed 1.5:1 vs. 4.2:1; χ2 = 7.90, p ≤ 0.01005). (ibid).

Thyroid cancers after the Chernobyl accident; Chernobyl accident; lessons learnt, an update. 2010. Sir Dillwyn Williams Cambridge



Some key opportunies to product especially very young children have been lost in Japan.

“On the basis of the current evidence it would seem sensible to subdivide the childhood risk into two groups, categorising young children as high risk, older children as medium risk, young adults as low risk, and older adults as undetectable or no risk. This would have the advantage of ensuring that in any future accident measures to protect preschool children would be given priority” Williams 2010 pp 29.

The evidence in relation to dietary iodine strengthens the need to eliminate I deficiency, and to consider long term iodine supplementation after exposure.” Williams, 2010 pp 29.



Thyroid Res. 2011; 4: 14.
Published online 2011 October 5. doi: 10.1186/1756-6614-4-14
PMCID: PMC3204293
Assessment of Japanese iodine intake based on seaweed consumption in Japan: A literature-based analysis
Theodore T Zava1 and David T Zavacorresponding author1

which states:
“Japanese iodine intake from edible seaweeds is amongst the highest in the world. Predicting the type and amount of seaweed the Japanese consume is difficult due to day-to-day meal variation and dietary differences between generations and regions. In addition, iodine content varies considerably between seaweed species, with cooking and/or processing having an influence on iodine content. Due to all these factors, researchers frequently overestimate, or underestimate, Japanese iodine intake from seaweeds, which results in misleading and potentially dangerous diet and supplementation recommendations for people aiming to achieve the same health benefits seen by the Japanese. By combining information from dietary records, food surveys, urine iodine analysis (both spot and 24-hour samples) and seaweed iodine content, we estimate that the Japanese iodine intake–largely from seaweeds–averages 1,000-3,000 μg/day (1-3 mg/day).”


“The amount of iodine the Japanese consume daily from seaweeds has previously been estimated as high as 13.5 to 45 mg/day by sources that use ambiguous data to approximate intake [10,11], an amount 4.5 to 15 times greater than the safe upper limit of 3 mg/day set by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare in Japan [12].

The characteristics of thyroid cancer suffered by children Japanese subject to fallout contamination may differ from the characteristics of thyroid cancer suffered by the Chernobyl cohort.

This deviance from the “Chernobyl established norm”, expected to be exhibited by Fukushima affected children in Japan, must not be used to exclude children from the current Japanese childhood thyroid cancer program.

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